A massive new oil discovery in China is changing the energy equation, potentially weakening foreign leverage and reshaping global power dynamics.

At a Glance

• CNOOC has discovered the Huizhou 19‑6 oilfield in the South China Sea, with proven reserves exceeding 100 million tonnes
• Production tests from the field delivered around 413 barrels of oil per day and 68,000 m³ of natural gas
• In Bohai Sea, the Kenli 10‑2 oilfield (estimated at 100 million tonnes) began production, targeting ~19,400 barrels per day by 2026
• China’s Sinopec has certified 1.3 billion barrels (≈180 million tonnes) in shale reserves from deep plays in Jiyang and Subei basins
• Despite new finds, unconventional shale currently contributes only about 1% of China’s total oil output

A Surge in Deep‑Water Discoveries

The Huizhou 19‑6 oilfield, located roughly 170 km off Shenzhen in the South China Sea, marks China’s first large-scale integrated clastic reservoir tapped in ultra‑deep layers. Its initial output has validated both scale and technical feasibility in high-pressure, high-temperature offshore conditions. Simultaneously, CNOOC has brought the Kenli 10‑2 platform in the Bohai Sea online—a complex thermal recovery system expected to support peak production of nearly 19,400 barrels per day by 2026.

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In eastern China’s Jiyang trough and Subei basin, Sinopec certified shale reserves totalling about 1.3 billion barrels. Although these formations are buried at depths of 2,900–4,560 m and entail high extraction costs, they represent a critical effort to offset depletion of conventional fields.

Can China End Its Oil Dependency?

China still imports roughly 70–72% of its crude oil needs, but these discoveries bring a strategic shift. Deep offshore production—once thought prohibitively expensive—now contributes significantly to growth plans. Sinopec targets annual discovery of 100 million tonnes of shale reserves from 2026 to 2030, and aims to produce 40,000 barrels per day by 2030 via shale alone. Meanwhile, energy demand growth is softening: gasoline use may already have peaked, and diesel could begin declining as electric and natural gas vehicle adoption accelerates.

Yet full self-sufficiency remains distant. Shale oil remains technically demanding and expensive, producing only a small share of total output. Offshore heavy oil fields like Kenli offer promise, but scaling such production faces geological and technical hurdles. And China remains vulnerable to chokepoints such as the Strait of Malacca, through which 80% of its imported oil passes—a risk Beijing continues to mitigate through pipeline networks and diversified routes.

Power Play and Global Implications

Beijing’s push to develop domestic reserves aligns with broader strategies to blunt foreign energy leverage. U.S. analysis suggests China might reach peak oil demand as early as 2027, reducing long-term import reliance. Efforts to promote EVs, energy storage, and domestic clean tech are further weakening traditional oil dependencies.

As investments in deep‑sea and shale expansion rise, China is rewriting its role in global energy markets. With rising domestic output and slowing demand growth, China may reduce reliance on Middle Eastern, Russian, or African exports—but analysts note that maintaining global power shift will hinge upon sustained investment, technological advances, and geopolitical resilience over the next five years.