Polls Show Trump Gaining Against Biden In Swing States
Not only is former President Donald Trump maintaining a seemingly insurmountable advantage over a dwindling field of Republican primary rivals, but polling shows that he appears to be in a prime position to take on President Joe Biden in a 2020 rematch next year.
Earlier this month, a poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College determined that Trump is leading Biden — by as much as nine points — in five of six battleground states Biden won three years ago.
The incumbent maintained a lead in Wisconsin, but it was a narrow 47% to 45% advantage.
NYT/Siena Poll: Trump Is Ahead in Five of Six Swing States.
Nevada
Trump 52%
Biden 41%
~~
Georgia
Trump 49%
Biden 43%
~~
Arizona
Trump 49%
Biden 44%
~~
Michigan
Trump 48%
Biden 43%
~~
Pennsylvania
Trump 48%
Biden 44%
~~
Wisconsin
Biden 47%
Trump 45%https://t.co/95el9rOVGV pic.twitter.com/OlCI9Dc0mr— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 5, 2023
Subsequent surveys suggest this poll was not an outlier and could be a sign that Trump is poised to dominate the 2024 general election.
A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll found Trump in a similarly advantageous position against his likeliest rival. Pollsters at Emerson College determined that Trump leads Biden in four out of six swing states, is only slightly behind the incumbent in a fifth, and the two candidates are statistically tied in the sixth.
While the impact of potential third-party candidates on either the major party’s nominee remains to be seen, the latest evidence indicates that independent White House hopeful Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would likely take roughly equal numbers of voters from both Trump and Biden.
Furthermore, as economic concerns take center stage for millions of struggling Americans, Bloomberg’s polling results found that battleground-state respondents are far more likely to say that their personal financial situation would be better under another Trump term than a second Biden term.
Although Democrats chalked up some electoral wins in last week’s off-year elections, even mainstream media sources are warning leftist voters not to read too much into those results. Nate Cohn of The New York Times, for example, wrote: “Tuesday’s results don’t change the picture for President Biden heading into 2024. The polls and the election results are surprisingly easy to reconcile. The surveys show millions of voters who dislike Mr. Biden but remain receptive to other Democrats and support liberal causes.”
Even if Biden is replaced at the top of the 2024 ballot, however, Trump could still follow a path to victory. A new Stack Data Strategy poll found that the former president is also leading in hypothetical matchups against both Vice President Kamala Harris and California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
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