Employment Trends Index Decline Fuels Stagflation Concerns For U.S. Economy

The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index (ETI) fell from 112.16 in March to 111.25 in April, indicating a potential slowdown in job growth during the second half of 2024. This downward trend in the index, which has successfully tracked employment trends in the past, is raising concerns about the health of the U.S. economy and the possibility of stagflation.

Stagflation is characterized by low economic growth, high unemployment and elevated inflation a combination that can create significant challenges for businesses and consumers. The ETI’s decline, along with other economic indicators such as low GDP growth and persistent inflation has led many market watchers to speculate that the U.S. economy may be experiencing this phenomenon.

Will Baltrus, associate economist at The Conference Board, commented on the report’s findings stating, “The ETI fell in April, a sign that employment growth could stall in the second half of 2024.” He noted that while the index remains above its pre-pandemic level and is still historically elevated, a slowdown in employment growth is more likely than aggregate job losses.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment from the Daily Caller News Foundation regarding the Conference Board’s report and the growing concerns about stagflation. As the ETI continues its downward trajectory, the potential for a slowdown in job growth during the latter half of 2024 remains a significant concern for the U.S. economy.

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