Syria’s new government is redefining its relationship with Russia after Assad’s fall—opening a high-stakes diplomatic gamble that could reshape the Middle East.

At a Glance

• Syrian FM Asaad al-Shaibani met with Russian officials in Moscow on July 31, 2025
• Talks focused on military bases, transitional justice, and sectarian violence
• Syria seeks to transform Russian bases into humanitarian sites amid sovereignty push
• Parliamentary elections scheduled for September 2025 may recalibrate foreign alliances
• Russia’s influence in Syria is under pressure as HTS-led government asserts control

Post-Assad Reset

In a striking reversal of regional power dynamics, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani arrived in Moscow this week to renegotiate the long-standing alliance between Damascus and the Kremlin. This marks the first major diplomatic effort by Syria’s transitional government—led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) coalition—since the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. For over a decade, Assad depended on Russia’s military and political backing to cling to power. Now, that alliance is being reengineered on radically different terms.

Watch now: Syria’s Transitional Government in Talks with Russia on Military Bases and Sovereignty · YouTube

Al-Shaibani’s Moscow visit focused on three key issues: the future of Russian military installations in Syria, the transitional government’s efforts toward national reconciliation, and measures to curb rising sectarian violence. While Russia has expressed openness to maintaining a presence at Tartus and Hmeimim, Syrian officials want those facilities reoriented toward humanitarian and civil reconstruction uses—signaling a departure from military dependency.

Russia Recalibrates

Russia’s interest in retaining influence in Syria is undeniable. But the Kremlin’s focus has been stretched thin by costly entanglements in Ukraine and Gaza. As a result, its leverage in the Levant has eroded. Now, with Assad gone and HTS in control, Russia is confronting the uncomfortable reality that its geopolitical investment may yield diminishing returns.

In their Moscow meetings, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Syrian counterpart emphasized mutual respect and the principle of non-interference. Lavrov hinted at support for Syria’s upcoming parliamentary elections in September—provided they meet international standards and ensure representation for religious and ethnic minorities, including Druze, Alawites, Kurds, and Christians. However, behind diplomatic niceties lies deep uncertainty over the future of military and economic ties.

Regional Chessboard in Flux

Syria’s outreach to Moscow is not just a bilateral maneuver—it’s a signal to neighboring states and global powers alike. The HTS-led government is attempting to present itself as a legitimate political force, capable of diplomacy and governance rather than mere insurgency. These moves could alter Syria’s relationships with Turkey, Iran, the Gulf states, and Western nations.

With parliamentary elections on the horizon, the transitional government’s legitimacy remains on trial. Russia’s response may set a precedent: will it act as a stabilizing broker, or cling to military footholds in a region reshaped by rebellion? The Kremlin’s next moves could determine whether Syria becomes a partner in reconstruction or a diplomatic liability.