A recent poll has indicated a shift in California’s political landscape, with Republican Steve Hilton reportedly leading in the gubernatorial race. This development comes as nearly 40% of voters remain undecided, suggesting a potentially unpredictable outcome for the state, which has been predominantly Democratic since 2011.

Story Highlights:

• Steve Hilton, a Fox News host, is shown to lead the California gubernatorial race in a new poll.
• A significant portion of the electorate, nearly 40%, remains undecided.
• Democratic frontrunner Katie Porter’s support has reportedly decreased following recent controversies.
• Hilton’s status as an outsider is noted to be a factor in energizing conservative voters.

On October 24, 2025, Emerson College released a poll showing Steve Hilton leading the candidates for California governor. This marks a notable moment for Republicans in a state where Democratic control has been consistent since 2011. Conservative voters have expressed concerns regarding progressive policies, citing economic issues, immigration, and social agendas. Hilton’s rise is presented as reflecting a demand for leadership that addresses these concerns.

The poll places Hilton at 16%, with Democratic frontrunner Katie Porter at 15% following a series of controversies. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco is at 11%, while Democrats Antonio Villaraigosa and Xavier Becerra each poll at 5%. The large percentage of undecided voters, nearly 40%, suggests the race is not yet settled, and future events could influence the outcome. This uncertainty offers a potential for a shift in California’s political direction, contingent on Hilton’s ability to maintain momentum and appeal to undecided voters.

Surprise: Republican Steve Hilton Leads Poll for California Governor

Republican Steve Hilton leads the latest poll for the California governor’s race in 2026, in a stunning result that indicates an electorate hungry for change. 👍

Steve Hilton (R) 16% Katie Porter (D) 15% pic.twitter.com/TTtQtblOO1

— Hodgepodgery /s 🙃 (@TaylorChar83070) October 26, 2025

Voter Dissatisfaction and Demand for Change

California’s economic conditions, including inflation, housing costs, and industry relocation, have contributed to a questioning of current leadership. Some residents attribute these issues to regulations and taxes. Hilton’s campaign focuses on addressing these frustrations, with promises to restore economic opportunity, defend constitutional rights, and enforce immigration laws. His background as a Fox News commentator is noted to resonate with voters who express dissatisfaction with established politicians.

Historical examples, such as Arnold Schwarzenegger’s 2003 victory, demonstrate that outsider candidates can succeed in California. However, Republicans have not secured many statewide offices since then. Hilton’s current position is attributed to recent Democratic challenges and a recalibration of voter priorities towards economic and family issues. The campaign’s success may depend on Hilton’s ability to engage undecided voters by offering solutions and adhering to conservative principles.

Media Coverage and Undecided Voters

Media reporting and public incidents have influenced voter sentiment. Katie Porter’s recent decline in the polls is linked to videos highlighting past behavior. Analysts emphasize that the substantial undecided bloc—nearly 40%—creates a dynamic environment where future developments could reshape the race. Both parties are under pressure to address voter concerns regarding economic hardship, immigration enforcement, and the preservation of traditional values. For conservatives, Hilton’s lead is viewed as an indication of a readiness to challenge progressive policies.

Watch the report: Republican Steve Hilton leads in new poll

Sources:

Surprise: Republican Steve Hilton Leads Poll for California Governor
Steve Hilton, Katie Porter lead latest poll in the California governor race – Orange County Register