Congress returns from summer recess facing internal disarray, a potential government shutdown, and crumbling public support, leaving Republicans politically exposed heading into the 2026 midterms.

At a Glance

• Republicans return to Capitol Hill under pressure to avoid a government shutdown by October 1.
• Democrats are demanding restoration of Medicaid and ACA funding cut by Trump’s recent tax bill.
• Trump’s approval ratings are negative, especially on healthcare and inflation, diminishing his political cover.
• The GOP is projected to lose ground in 2026, with Trump absent from the ballot and historical trends unfavorable.

Budget Crisis and Healthcare Fallout

When Speaker Mike Johnson abruptly ended the House session in July, it provided a temporary shield from mounting controversies, notably the Trump administration’s refusal to release files related to Jeffrey Epstein. Now, with Congress back in session, Republicans must immediately confront unresolved fiscal battles.

At the center of the storm is the threat of a government shutdown. Despite controlling both chambers, Republicans failed to pass appropriations before the recess. Democrats, needed for any bipartisan deal, are demanding reversal of recent Medicaid and ACA cuts. These cuts, enacted through Trump’s latest tax and reconciliation bill, are expected to increase insurance premiums for over 20 million Americans.

Watch now: Jeffries, Schumer Call For ‘FOUR CORNERS’ Meeting with GOP Leaders To AVOID Shutdown | SUNRISE

Losing Trump’s Cover

Trump’s absence from the 2026 midterms marks a critical shift for Republicans. Previously, MAGA-aligned voters helped buffer congressional Republicans against losses, but that insulation is now gone. Pollster Tony Fabrizio noted in July that midterm elections are historically brutal for the ruling party—and Republicans are already behind in generic ballot polling.

Moreover, Trump’s polling has declined sharply over healthcare and inflation concerns, weakening his influence over swing voters. Without his name on the ballot, many incumbents face tough re-election fights without the benefit of his turnout boost among the base.

Democrats Shift Strategy

In March, Democrats avoided confrontation over budget talks, voting with Republicans to keep the government open. This time, however, their posture has changed. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has made clear that Democrats will push back unless Medicaid and ACA cuts are reversed.

Schumer’s strategy includes forcing Republicans to vote against popular healthcare provisions or face a shutdown. Prior to the recess, negotiations between Schumer and Trump broke down over the approval of presidential nominees and frozen congressional spending. Trump responded with a characteristically incendiary social media post telling Schumer to “GO TO HELL.”

Now, Democrats see a political opportunity: they aim to contrast Republican disarray with a unified stance on protecting entitlements and averting a shutdown.

What’s Next

As the October 1 deadline looms, the GOP must broker a bipartisan deal or risk a shutdown with broad voter backlash. If Democrats successfully force healthcare funding restoration into the deal, it could reframe the fall political narrative in their favor.

Meanwhile, Republicans face a credibility gap on fiscal responsibility, as rising debt levels and unpopular cuts undercut their budgetary messaging. With Trump absent and no clear unifying agenda, the fall session may become a referendum not just on GOP governance—but its survival strategy heading into 2026.

Sources

The Hill
Yahoo News
AOL
Politico