The Port of Los Angeles braces for a devastating 35% decline in cargo arrivals next week as businesses cancel Chinese orders following Trump’s 145% tariff, threatening nationwide product shortages and economic fallout.

At a Glance

• The Port of Los Angeles expects a 35% drop in cargo arrivals by next week due to halted shipments from China
• Retailers have canceled orders from China following Trump’s 145% tariff on most Chinese imports
• The National Retail Federation predicts a 20% drop in imports during the second half of 2024 if tariffs persist
• Potential product shortages may affect footwear, apparel, toys, electronics, and perishable items
• Supply chain disruptions could take months to resolve even if tariffs are reduced

Major Port Faces Sharp Decline in Shipping Traffic

Gene Seroka, Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles, warned of an imminent 35% decline in cargo arrivals during a recent meeting with the port’s board of harbor commissioners. The stark forecast comes as freight vessel arrivals are projected to decrease by 33% year-over-year for the week ending May 10. This dramatic reduction stems directly from President Trump’s trade policies that have effectively halted Chinese imports, creating ripple effects throughout America’s supply chain infrastructure.

The timing of this shipping decline is particularly concerning as retailers typically increase orders during this period to prepare for back-to-school sales and the holiday shopping season. Instead, major companies like Target have reportedly canceled orders from Chinese vendors, affecting everything from electronics to press-on nails. This unprecedented disruption threatens to create inventory gaps in American stores similar to those experienced during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

To avoid soaring U.S. tariffs, Chinese manufacturers are racing to set up production facilities in the U.S. Despite higher costs and operational hurdles, companies view local manufacturing as critical to sustaining business.https://t.co/z5bzmgHGSy
Trump’s Trade War Has Already… pic.twitter.com/15NmoGQpnD

— Spotlight on China (@spotlightoncn) April 27, 2025

Economic Impact on Retailers and Consumers

The current tariff structure places American businesses in an impossible position – either sell products at a loss, significantly raise prices for consumers, or simply stop carrying certain items. Small businesses face particularly severe challenges, with some owing hundreds of thousands in unexpected tariff bills. Jessica Berger, founder and CEO of pet company Bundle x Joy, exemplifies this dilemma as she faces a $180,000 tariff bill when her products arrive in the United States.

The National Retail Federation has sounded alarms, predicting a 20% decrease in imports during the second half of 2024 if the current tariff situation continues. This shortfall would affect a wide range of products, with low-cost footwear, apparel, toys, electronics, and perishable items like apple juice and fish likely to disappear from shelves first. These shortages could trigger inflation as available products command premium prices due to limited supply.

From Trade Flow Disruption to Systemic Cash-flow and Supply Shortages🔥👇👇

To construct a timeline for this event, it’s critical to note that this analysis excludes liquidity shifts from routine events (e.g., TGA, issuances) and focuses solely on the US-China trade narrative.… https://t.co/dYaI2jiVYv pic.twitter.com/N1E4lzq5ql

— Amit Noam Tal (@amital13) April 28, 2025

Broader Supply Chain Disruptions

Beyond immediate retail impacts, the shipping decline threatens cascading effects throughout America’s transportation infrastructure. Industry experts warn about potential unclaimed containers piling up at U.S. ports as importers find themselves unable to pay the massive tariffs required to claim their goods. This container backlog could severely disrupt port operations and eventually lead to truck driver shortages as shipping volume decreases.

White House officials have expressed concern about potential product shortages during key American holidays, including the Fourth of July and Christmas. While reports indicate President Trump is considering reducing the tariffs, experts caution that supply chain disruptions could take weeks or even months to resolve once shipping patterns are interrupted. This delay means that even immediate policy changes may not prevent shortages of popular consumer goods during the upcoming holiday season.